Did the Oscars Short Lists Shake Up the Best Picture Race?

The annual Oscar short lists, which whittle down 12 of the ceremony’s 24 categories ahead of nominations, usually offer some of the season’s most important tea leaves. Tuesday’s lists once again made clear which films are currently playing well with the Academy, and which might be struggling.

Wicked: For Good and Sinners led the initial round, appearing on the short lists for eight categories. Frankenstein followed with six appearances. None of that is surprising; all three films were already strong contenders in the craft categories, and the Wicked sequel and Sinners both got two songs apiece on the original song short list.

Where things start to get interesting is the fact that Sirât, the Spanish submission for the best international feature film, landed on five short lists—the same number as general Oscar frontrunner One Battle After Another. Sirât, about a father looking for his missing daughter among ravers in southern Morocco, landed not only on the international feature list, but also on the lists for cinematography, score, sound, and the new casting category.

International features were represented on these short lists like never before. The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value also landed casting short list mentions, in a category that included many other potential Oscar heavy hitters such as Sinners, One Battle After Another, and Marty Supreme. Because the casting category is new this year, this is our first peek into how that voting body might select its nominees. So far, it looks like they’re open to all sorts of films, including strong ensembles and front-runners—but also leaving room for some more unexpected choices.

The most glaring omission from the short lists is The Testament of Ann Lee, a historical musical starring Amanda Seyfried. The bold film earned strong reviews at the fall film festivals, but didn’t land on a single short list—even though its composer, Daniel Blumberg, won the Oscar for best score just last year for The Brutalist. The musical also had an original song, “Clothed by the Sun,” which Blumberg wrote; it was also snubbed. Perhaps not enough voters saw the film before casting their ballots, due to its Christmas release date. All hope is not lost—Seyfried is still in the best-actress race—but further recognition feels like a taller hill to climb.

With all this information in hand, the hosts of Little Gold Men felt ready this week to predict which 10 films will be nominated for best picture. Many films, including One Battle After Another, Sinners, Marty Supreme, Hamnet, Sentimental Value, Frankenstein, and It Was Just an Accident, feel like solid locks at this point—but the remaining three spots are still up in the air. Could this be the first year in history that three international films make it onto the list? At this point, anything seems possible.