Why a Golden Globe Win Matters More Than Ever

When Fernanda Torres took the stage at the 2025 Golden Globes to accept the award for “best actress in a drama,” you could feel the awards season tides shifting beneath the audience’s stiletto-clad feet. The Brazilian actor suddenly became a real contender for an Oscar nomination—and anyone who had yet to see I’m Still Here subsequently rushed out to watch it. Sure enough, Torres made history later that month as just the second Brazilian woman ever nominated for an acting Oscar.

Although that Globe win wasn’t the only reason Torres was able to land her Academy Awards nod, her emotional acceptance speech—complete with her voice cracking when she mentioned her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, who had been nominated in the same category for Central Station 26 years earlier—caught the attention of the voters in that ballroom, as well as those tuning in on TV.

The 2026 Golden Globes could prove to be a similarly vital launching pad for several Oscar hopefuls contending in very tight acting races this year. As we discuss on this week’s episode of Little Gold Men, the lead actor race is especially cutthroat, with two of the frontrunners—Marty Supreme’s Timothée Chalamet and One Battle After Another’s Leonardo DiCaprio—both nominated in the “lead actor in a musical or comedy” category. Another win for Chalamet (who won over DiCaprio at the Critics’ Choice Awards last weekend) could push him ahead. But what happens in the “lead actor in a drama” category might be even more interesting. Sinners star Michael B. Jordan, The Secret Agent’s Wagner Moura, and Train Dreams’s Joel Edgerton all have a real shot—and each could use their moment onstage to remind voters about their incredible work just ahead of Oscar voting.

While “best actress in a drama” feels locked up for Hamnet star and category frontrunner Jessie Buckley, the “best actress in a musical or comedy” category could be more volatile. Rose Byrne has been gaining momentum for her performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, but there’s a chance Chase Infiniti could land her first major awards win here because the love for One Battle After Another is so strong. Giving Infiniti a big moment onstage could help her in her race for the best actress Oscar nomination as well.

The supporting categories also have a lot of heat on them this year. It’s possible that One Battle After Another stars Benicio Del Toro and Teyana Taylor both win—but Frankenstein’s Jacob Elordi is fresh off his victory at the Critics Choice Awards and has a shot here as well. A Globe win might make him a front-runner for the Oscars. And Amy Madigan has been earning lots of love for her work in Weapons, so there’s a path for her to win at the Globes too.

The Little Gold Men team breaks down all these tight races—and the importance of the Globes—on this week’s episode, which you can listen to below. And be sure to check out all of Vanity Fair’s Golden Globe predictions ahead of Sunday’s telecast.